11:13 GMT 19th May 2011
As long as he guaranteed stabilit), in the Mfiddlc East, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak was a darling of the US government. Tunisia's Ben Ali was a close friend of the French. As the uprising started, then French foreign minister, Michelle Alliot-Marie offered france's help to quell the uprising. The west merely switched sides when they realised those regimes could not be salvaged.
When the uprising spread to Libya, it offered a tempting case for western intervention. Some countries like France needed to redeem their standing as defenders of freedom. The fall of the friendly regimes in Egypt and Tunisia raised possibilities that the west might lose its hold on the region. Libya, sandwiched between the two countries, offered the possibility of a good client state emerging to keep an eye on the neighbours.
The country was also run by a man hated by many. With his mercurial behaviour, Muammar Caddafi had few or no friends. He had alienated countries in the African Union with his push for a pan-African government - ruled by him. He despised the Arab League, which in turn despised him.
More than all this though, there was a huge incentive for intervening in Libya. With proven reserves of 46.42 biLlion barrels of oil or 4.4 per cent of total world reserves, Libya is attractive to any country or economic bloc that can lay its hands on these riches.
Without serious thought to the possible outcomes, france and its western allies pushed for a UN Security Council vote to intervene in Libya. The argument was that the world needed to do so to stop the Libyan government from committing a massacre. In good faith, most members of the Security Council voted for it and the few who did not abstained. The premise for the resolution has turned out to be false. Caddafi was not planning to massacre his own people, therefem: military intervention was unnecessary. The uprising in Libya, unlike those in Egypt and Tunisia, was an armed rebellion and any government would have responded with force.
With the pretext of protecting innocent civilians, western allies attacked Libya. Within days, it was clear that the UN resolution was obtained to provide a cover to pursue other objectives. That objective has turned out to be regime change. The allies have become the rebel's air force. In the process, they are killing the same civilians they wanted to protect and will kill many more in the days ahead. They arc also prolonging the conflict by emboldening the rebels to reject offers for mediation, even from the African Union.
The western allies arc on a dangerous path. No one says Caddafi should stay in power but that decision is for Libyans to make, not powcrful foreigners. Outsiders cannot cry loudcr than thc bercaved. It is now clear that Caddafi has far morc supporters than the world was led to believe. If there were no Libyans ready to die for Gaddafi, his government would have collapsed weeks ago.
It is time for the international community, to promote a political solution to the crisis in Libya. If no political solution is found, Libya, as its defected foreign minister, Musa Kusa, warned, will become another Somalia. A failed state on the Mediterranean coast with a large expanse of 'unpoliceable' desert will be a nightmare for the west.
no comments
