12:39 GMT 25th January 2012
'The risks of recession in our main partner countries have increased significantly,' Bank al-Maghrib said in a statement after a policy meeting in which it kept its key interest rate at 3.25 per cent.
'Despite the broadly positive trend in [Morocco's] external accounts indicators to the end of November, particularly receipts from transfers of Moroccans living abroad, some signs are emerging of the spreading impact of economic slowdown in partner countries,' it said. The bank said it expected the country's budget deficit this year to be slightly higher than previously forecast, at 5- 5.5 per cent of GDP, and trimmed its economic growth forecast for this year to 4-5 per cent from 4.5-5.5 per cent.
The bank, which has held its benchmark lending rate at 3.25 per cent since March 2009, said headline inflation would remain subdued next year, averaging 1.5 per cent before rising to 2.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2013.Core inflation would not exceed 2 per cent by the end of the first quarter of 2013, it said.
The EU is Morocco's main economic partner accounting for close to two-thirds of the country's overseas trade and is a source of both tourists visiting the country and transfers by some 2 million Moroccan migrants who live in the EU.
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